Are Armenians Living Better
Now? Propaganda and Reality
Over the last year and a half, statistics show that the economic situation in Armenia and neighboring countries like Georgia is getting better. The economic growth reached to record high of 14.2% in 2022. However, the factors that contribute to these developments are usually not discussed and examined.
The propaganda by the government on the economic advancement in the country is aimed at the creation of an image of the effectiveness of government policies. However, a thorough examination of the statistics and numbers shows that the reality is not so optimistic. Most of the advancement happened because of geopolitical developments, specifically- the war between Russia and Ukraine and the Russian skilled workers' migration to Armenia.
There were several claims about why Armenians are living better now, one of the most important ones being the increase in the average salary in the country.
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To understand the public discourse about the economic situation in Armenia we went to a local food and clothes market. Most of the respondents were dissatisfied with the current situation, mentioning that the prices are increasing for everything, and if their livelihood changed, then only for the worse. The majority of the people complained about the high inflation rate and increased housing costs in Armenia. When asked to speak in front of the camera, everyone refused by claiming they might get into problems with the state.
Some of them even recalled stories of police violating their rights, and that they would prefer to not get into trouble with them anymore.
Overall, as almost everyone mentioned, the economic situation might be getting better for state officials, but regular people do not feel the effects of the "economic boom".
There were several claims about why Armenians are living better now, one of the most important ones being the increase in the average salary in the country.
Vahan Kerobyan, the Minister of Economics claimed that by the end of 2022, the average salary has risen by 20 % and was at a record high of 265,000 drams (680 USD). However, the minister, like anyone else from the government, never mentions that these statistics do not necessarily mean that Armenians are getting such high wages.
Moreover, looking at the statistics from Armstat.com, it becomes clear that the average salary drastically increased from 2022 February to March, from 204 307 AMD (525 USD) to 227 173 (583 USD) AMD in just a month, amounting an 11 percent raise in such a short period of time.
In an attempt to track the real changes in the Armenian job market and its consequences, we looked at the data of workers in the IT sphere, as the majority of the Russian migrants are working in this sphere.
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By March 2023, the number of people working in IT in Armenia has increased by 31 787, around 30 percent more compared with the same period in 2022. At the same time, the salary of IT workers has reached 1 102 799 dram, which equals 2800 USD. It is a 36% percent increase from the previous year’s statistics. ​
According to the Minister of Economy, around 35-37 thousand companies have been opened by the Russians who arrived in Armenia, from which 12 thousand are LTDs, and 25 thousand are individual entrepreneurs.
At the same time, in the educational sphere, where more than 16% of all registered employees work, only a 1,6 percent salary increase was recorded.
To analyze the situation better, we talked with Armenian economist and lecturer Hayk Bejanyan about the latest developments and the reality behind mere facts.
He started off by saying that the average salary is not the best indicator to measure the well-being of society. "The method of calculation, simple average, which is the total sum of all wages divided by their number, cannot provide accurate data. So, if there are few workers who get high salaries then the average will be high too, which cannot represent the real picture", notes Bejanyan.
Then he went on to explain that there are other methods that show a more accurate picture, such as moda or median. Moda shows the value that occurs the most, and the median is the value that appears in the middle of the value set.
Bejanyan also mentioned the importance of the cumulative effect of inflation, which should be added to the previous year's inflation rate and only then compared to the salary raise to understand whether the salaries have actually increased, or they are barely a response to the inflation rate.
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Overall, considering the data from the statistical committee and the expert's opinion, it is safe to note that the claims by government officials that people are living better are baseless. Moreover, even if the situation is getting better, it's hard to understand how much of the progress is due to state policies and which part is determined merely by the developments in the region.
Considering the housing costs increase and the inflation rate in Armenia, our surveys showed the increase in salary doesn’t even meet the needs of people in the new reality.
Text and Photos: Arpine Hovhannisyan
Video: Mariam Stepanyan
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